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- Fuel and Freight Daily Update - 6/16/25
08/01/2025
Futures Market Settles
Front Month Settlements:
• WTI (Jul): $72.98 ▲ $4.94
• Brent (Aug): $74.23 ▲ $4.87
• RBOB (Jul): $2.2276 ▲ 8.47¢
• ULSD (HO Jul): $2.3587 ▲ 17.00¢
Key Spreads & Cracks
• HO/Brent (Aug): $24.06 ▲ $1.85
• RB/Brent (Aug): $18.74 ▼ $1.24
• HO/WTI Crack (Jul): $26.09 ▲ $2.20
• HOGO (July Futures): +14.15¢ ▲ 1.75¢
HOGO Swaps
• July '25: +14.25¢ ▲ 1.65¢
• August '25: +15.35¢ ▲ 2.00¢
• Q3 '25: +15.20¢ ▲ 2.10¢
• Q4 '25: +17.05¢ ▲ 2.70¢
ULSD & Jet Physical Market Settles (LT & ME Contracts)
Colonial Pipeline Differentials:
• ULSD 62g (C30): -7.25¢
• Jet Fuel 54g (C31): -17.50¢
LT (ULSD) CME Blocks:
• BALMO: -7.25¢
• Q3 ’25 Avg: -7.12¢
• Q4 ’25 Avg: -10.19¢
ME (Jet) CME Blocks:
• BALMO: -17.50¢
• Q3 ’25 Avg: -17.46¢
• Q4 ’25 Avg: -21.42¢
RIN Futures
• D6 (Ethanol): $1.0900 ▲ $0.1600
• D4 (Biodiesel): $1.1650 ▲ $0.1650
• D5 (Advanced): $1.0400 ▲ $0.0300
• D3 (Cellulosic): $2.2300 ▼ $0.0300
Freight Market Summary
Clean Tankers:
Tonnage remains heavy out of the USGC, but recent crude and product rallies have sparked modest chartering activity. Fixtures into Latin America and the Caribbean increased slightly, with more interest in distillate barrels.
Crude Tankers:
Freight markets saw renewed activity amid the crude rally. Charterers continue to secure tonnage cautiously, with July programs filling slowly.
Pipeline & Terminals:
Colonial spreads widened marginally as product cracks lifted. Line space remains fully allocated into late June cycles.
LNG Shipping:
Atlantic charter rates climbed further as late June and early July liftings fill up. Availability on flexible tonnage is limited.
Market Signals to Watch
War Impact on Logistics
Ongoing Middle East tensions have driven up freight and insurance costs, particularly on routes transiting near the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Many vessels are being rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding transit time and expense.
War-risk premiums and bunker fuel costs have increased significantly. This environment has led to firmer tanker rates and tighter shipping capacity, particularly for East-West movements.
• Diesel cracks continue to lead the complex higher
• RIN rally supported by buying on price strength
• Freight market tightness adding cost pressure
• Middle East conflict driving risk premiums and logistical reshuffling
• LNG shipping remains firm with strong summer demand
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
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