Fuel and Freight Daily Update - 6/26/25

08/01/2025

All pricing reflects end‑of‑day settlements from June 25th, 2025

• WTI (Aug): $64.92 ▲ 0.55

• Brent (Aug): $67.68 ▲ 0.54

• RBOB (Jul): $2.0824 ▼ 0.0033

• ULSD (HO Jul): $2.2964 ▲ 0.0113

• HO/Brent (Aug): $27.09 ▼ 0.25

• RB/Brent (Aug): $19.09 ▼ 0.75

• HO/WTI Crack (Aug): $29.85 ▲ 0.42

• HOGO (July Futures): +14.30 ▼ 0.0055

• July '25: +13.75

• Aug '25: +15.20

• Q3 '25: +14.80

• Q4 '25: +16.60

• Q1 '26: +15.90

• Q2 '26: +13.00

Colonial Pipeline Differentials:

• ULSD 62g (C38): -5.90

• Jet Fuel 54g (C39): -19.00

LT (ULSD) CME Blocks:

BALMO: -9.65
Q3 ’25 Avg: -7.24
Q4 ’25 Avg: -10.19
Q1 ’26 Avg: -8.27
Q2 ’26 Avg: -6.48

ME (Jet) CME Blocks:

BALMO: -22.33
Q3 ’25 Avg: -18.42
Q4 ’25 Avg: -21.71
Q1 ’26 Avg: -20.34
Q2 ’26 Avg: -17.42

RIN Futures (Dec ’25)

• D6 (Ethanol): $1.0575 ▼ 0.0075

• D4 (Biodiesel): $1.1425 ▼ 0.0075

• D5 (Advanced): $1.1350 ▲ 0.0025

• D3 (Cellulosic): $2.1800 ▼ 0.50

Clean Tankers
Gulf Coast tonnage remains long, with vessels stacking up, though consistent demand from Latin America and the East Coast is offering some relief. Freight rates are inching up, especially as operators start pricing in longer transit times and higher insurance costs tied to global risk headlines.

Crude Tankers
Rates are climbing as VLCCs avoid the Strait of Hormuz, opting for longer routes around Africa. The added distance and geopolitical tension are pushing charter costs higher. Middle East–Asia freight is particularly firm, and forward freight agreements (FFAs) continue to price in elevated earnings.

LNG Shipping
Atlantic LNG rates are supported by tighter availability and delays tied to ongoing rerouting efforts. While LNG movement through the Strait of Hormuz hasn’t halted, several charters have rerouted as a precaution, adding to time and cost pressures.

Geopolitical & Logistics Impact

Strait of Hormuz
Tensions remain high following Iran’s warning about potential closure of the strait. While traffic hasn’t stopped entirely, commercial vessels are slowing, rerouting, or idling near entry points. Throughput is estimated to be down nearly 30% compared to early June.

Insurance and Risk Premiums
War-risk insurance premiums have surged in recent days, particularly on routes touching the Middle East. Owners are passing those costs onto charterers, which is filtering into higher freight for both clean and dirty cargoes.

Red Sea & Suez
The Suez route remains sparsely used due to lingering threats from previous attacks. Most East-West traffic is moving via the Cape of Good Hope, increasing voyage times and contributing to tonnage tightness globally.

• Freight rate pressure continues to build as geopolitical uncertainty increases voyage durations and risk.

• Logistical bottlenecks are beginning to show, with key routes like Hormuz and Suez avoided or delayed.

• Risk premiums are the new norm, with no immediate resolution expected from either the Iran situation or Red Sea instability.