Fuel and Freight Daily Update - 7/2/25

08/02/2025

All pricing reflects end‑of‑day settlements from July 1st, 2025

• WTI (Aug): $65.45 ▲ 0.34

• Brent (Aug): $67.11 ▲ 0.37

• RBOB (Aug): $2.1003 ▲ 0.0282

• ULSD (HO Aug): $2.3269 ▲ 0.0506

• HO/Brent (Aug): $29.07 ▲ 0.37

• RB/Brent (Aug): $19.72 ▲ 0.68

• HO/WTI Crack (Aug): $32.28 ▲ 1.79

• HOGO (Aug Futures): +16.75 ▲ 0.0125

• Aug '25: +15.40

• Sep '25: +15.85

• Q4 '25: +17.20

• Q1 '26: +16.90

• Q2 '26: +14.30

Colonial Pipeline Differentials:

• ULSD 62g (C38): -5.25

• Jet Fuel 54g (C39): -23.50

LT (ULSD) CME Blocks:

BALMO: -7.25
Q4 ’25 Avg: -10.36
Q1 ’26 Avg: -8.32
Q2 ’26 Avg: -6.48
Q3 ’26 Avg: -6.22

ME (Jet) CME Blocks:

BALMO: -20.75
Q4 ’25 Avg: -22.33
Q1 ’26 Avg: -20.00
Q2 ’26 Avg: -17.29
Q3 ’26 Avg: -17.50

RIN Futures (Dec ’25)

• D6 (Ethanol): $1.0850 ▲ 0.0200

• D4 (Biodiesel): $1.1725 ▲ 0.0225

• D5 (Advanced): $1.1500 ▲ 0.0050

• D3 (Cellulosic): $2.1000 ▲ 0.0050

Clean Tankers
Freight rates continue to firm across clean tanker routes as shipowners adjust to persistently long transit times. The U.S. Gulf remains oversupplied with tonnage, but steady cargo flow to Latin America and the East Coast is helping absorb some excess. Operators are also pricing in delays and regional instability as part of their new normal.

Crude Tankers
Large crude carriers are still avoiding the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, sticking to the longer Cape of Good Hope route. These detours are creating tighter availability across major lanes, especially in the Middle East–Asia corridor. As a result, spot rates are staying supported, with increased forward demand keeping sentiment firm.

LNG Shipping
LNG charter rates remain elevated on both sides of the Atlantic. Fewer vessels are available as many avoid higher-risk zones or are tied up with longer round trips. Even without a full shutdown of strategic waterways, the current environment is pushing freight costs higher and keeping availability tight.

Geopolitical & Logistics Snapshot

Strait of Hormuz
Although there hasn’t been a formal closure, traffic through Hormuz remains slow and cautious. A mix of political posturing and military maneuvers in the Gulf is keeping shipowners on edge. Several commercial vessels are idling or rerouting entirely, and overall throughput is significantly below seasonal averages.

Suez Canal / Red Sea
Most East-West traffic continues to avoid the Suez Canal, opting instead for longer voyages around Africa. The extended transit times are impacting global supply chain efficiency, with congestion building up on alternative shipping corridors.

Wider Market Impacts
Risk premiums for marine insurance are now a regular line item. Even modest upticks in regional tension are keeping freight markets volatile. With no clear timeline for resolution, the broader tone remains cautious and freight pricing is likely to stay elevated in the near term.

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