Fuel and Freight Daily Update - 9/31/25

10/01/2025

All prices reflect end-of-day settlements from September 30th, 2025

Colonial Pipeline Differentials (USGC):

• ULSD 62g (C57): -6.00

• Jet Fuel 54g (C57): -13.00

Clean Tankers – The U.S. Gulf continues to show long vessel lists, keeping sentiment soft. Export demand into Latin America and the U.S. East Coast is steady but not enough to offset oversupply. Risk premiums tied to congestion, weather, and geopolitical concerns remain embedded in freight pricing, cushioning rates from steeper downside. The market remains stable but fragile.

Crude Tankers – VLCCs are still firmly committed to the Cape of Good Hope routing, bypassing Hormuz and the Red Sea. The longer voyages continue to absorb global capacity, sustaining firm Middle East–Asia long-haul rates despite otherwise muted demand signals. The Cape detour remains entrenched as the “default,” providing structural support for crude freight.

LNG Shipping – LNG freight remains tight. Atlantic Basin demand is steady, and seasonal weather risks are further lengthening voyages. Spot vessel supply is minimal, leaving little slack in the system. Rates remain well supported, with the market highly sensitive to incremental demand or disruption.

Routing & Geopolitics – No major changes in routing patterns. Tankers across clean, crude, and LNG segments continue avoiding chokepoints, extending voyages and restricting effective supply. These structural inefficiencies keep a pricing floor under freight markets, leaving conditions balanced but vulnerable.

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